Escaping the Founder Trap

Mohsen Renani: Fifteen years ago (2002), in a meeting with several members of the Sixth Parliament, I warned that if the country's two main political factions did not exercise caution in their political rivalry, the country would soon fall into the "Founder's Trap," and if that happened, the country would remain in this trap for at least fifteen years. Read the details of this warning here.

At that time, I wrote down my theory and sent it to some experts, and of course, no publication was willing to publish this theory at the time. Finally, in 2006 (when the country had practically already entered the "Founder's Trap"), I prepared a modified version of that theory in an article titled "Transition from the Third Transition," which was published in issue 19 of the journal Farhang-e Andisheh.

Now that with the passing of Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the main heavyweights in Iran's political arena has left the stage, the political forces of the two factions will undoubtedly strive to rearrange Iran's political scene to their own advantage. But this rearrangement must not lead to a further tightening of the political knot in Iran. We do not have much time, and as long as security and calm prevail in the country, we must, through cooperation and in a rational manner, extricate the country from the Founder's Trap. Fifteen years have now passed since my warning about the danger of the country entering the Founder's Trap, and during this period, neither of the country's two factions, in their deadly rivalry, has achieved their desired goals. So it is better for everyone to reconsider their path.

Now that a major portion of the country's water resources has entered a critical state, and the meager oil income can no longer untie any of our economic knots, and the country is facing eight to ten million unemployed (official and unofficial) and over eleven million marginalized inhabitants, and waves of environmental problems, disease, cultural anomalies, and the destruction of our social capital have engulfed us, the time has come for the wise individuals of the country's two political factions to muster the resolve, consensus, and cooperation to extricate the country from the Founder's Trap; perhaps there is still an opportunity to save the country from the imminent crises that lie ahead. It is already getting very late.

I believe reviewing that article still offers insights that, if there is integrity and honesty among the political actors of the two factions, could be helpful in making decisions for future games. I have also begun writing a piece on this matter, which, of course, must be sent confidentially to some of the country's elders.

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PDF file of the article "Transition from the Third Transition" published in 2006

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Exiting the Founder's Trap

Mohsen Renani

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